Unmasked & Uncertain

Two years after California (and most of the world) shut down in March of 2020, things are getting back to normal around here.

Our family got a taste of "post-pandemic life" while we were traveling to Arizona over presidents' week. Liberal California did an excellent job managing the pandemic early, but had some of the strictest COVID restrictions around, and has been slow to lift them (pre-vaccine availability, I largely agreed with the exception of school closures which should have never happened).  I know several very risk-averse people who still feel that lifting mask mandates in elementary schools, among other places, is premature and are quite angry and vocal about it (the NYT Daily had a good podcast episode back in January about the irrationality and non-evidence-based positions of some people on the left).  However, once vaccines were available to all kids five and up and it's been clear that COVID in kids younger than this is very mild in the vast majority (and either similar or less risky than influenza in vaccinated or under-five groups), I've been very in favor of lifting most COVID restrictions and moving back towards normalcy, as I blogged about early in January, when people were extremely anxious about the Omicron wave. I read somewhere that at this point, due to the sheer numbers of people infected in December and January, up to 90% of Americans probably have some degree of COVID immunity, whether natural or acquired! Masks are small potatoes to me and my kids and don't disrupt life much for us. However, the testing-before-travel (as travel is one of my main joys in life!) and the forced isolation/suggested quarantining is what I'm most thrilled to eliminate (I think the UK just did this), especially as I'm not sure my newly-four and still-not-vaccine-eligible kid will likely be vaccinated for a good while more (and it's hard to hold onto hope for this as the "end all" for the pandemic risk for our family. Perhaps we've even all had COVID and just didn't know it/test for it!).   

California lifted the indoor mask mandate for vaccinated people around February 16th and then, on March 1st, for all people. It's been hard to "change behavior" of what has been the norm for two years (with some brief gaps like summer 2021 pre-Delta)!  Arizona didn't have mask mandates when we were there, and we (even our unvaccinated kid) went maskless in grocery stores and malls, almost daring COVID to finally get us (note: we're all fine although I still held my breath for many days watching for symptoms in anyone; we don't believe in asymptomatic testing). Going maskless felt surprisingly normal when it was on "vacation," but more fraught when at home during our "regular lives." We saw some people in AZ masked, but they were in the minority (I can't even imagine what a different experience it would have been to pass this pandemic [and to reside now] in Florida or Texas or other "red states."). 

When I returned home here and attended church last weekend, 80% of people were unmasked, and I found myself trying to do the analysis of whether everyone was vaxxed (or recovered) or just unconcerned (as many religious people have been, even the elderly). I didn't wear my mask, but I sat in the back, away from singing spittle, and six feet away from my closest neighbor.  The library had lifted their mask sign when I visited last week, and I went maskless. But, when I went to the post office and felt like I was stuck in line in an enclosed space, I wore mine.  When Niall came with me this weekend to the library, worried about sending mixed messages to him due to his preschool's current policies, I wore my mask, as did he. But we went out to eat with friends and their kids at a pizza place on Saturday (the first time in forever!) and the kids were unmasked. It will be a while before I don't feel nervous (and naked!) to go about our town entirely mask free (Kelvin actually likes the anonymity of masks when shopping here); there will likely be a bit of intermittent (and fairly arbitrary) mask-wearing as we navigate these uncharted waters. (At work and per CDPH, Kelvin and I are still masking with patients, who are also masked, although we can unmask in our universally vaccinated work pods).

Kelvin says that the mask mandate for public school may be lifted around March 11th, while masks may still be "strongly recommended."  Each school (board) will have to decide (ours has a meeting this week) what their kids will be asked to do.  Daycare /preschool may have different guidelines. While I'm thrilled we're at this point in the pandemic, and Iver (who has been unmasked outside for a couple of months, which was met with a bit of trepidation but not a lot) is excited to attend school mask free, I still hesitate (as I know many parents will. I don't envy the principals having to deal with parental back-lash to unmasking in this liberal state as many had to deal with fervent anti-mask parents in others).  Kelvin thinks that the cloth masks that the kids have been wearing provide more of an "illusion" of protection given the contagiousness of more recent variants, and that Iver is not much more at risk of COVID or spread by going maskless even indoors; however, I feel there's probably a small layer of protection against testing positive by wearing one (along with, of course, his vaccine series. Obviously, all measures have helped him stay [we think] COVID-free to date. I don't know what percentage of the kids in his class are immune).  

Because we don't have flexible/workable-from-home jobs, until CDC lifts isolation guidelines, it might make sense to mask sometimes, at least before our planned international travel later this spring-summer!  I’m not worried about the actual health risks for COVID in our family but rather that we don’t have people to watch our  kids if they (or we) are sick with COVID. We could live with the flu risk in the past, and we have to be able to live with probable endemic COVID; it's just hard to scale back the hyper-caution we've practiced for two years and uncertainty is harder than certainty to navigate (while I would never want to go back to 2020, "just wear the mask and social distance!" was an easier path to know how to follow)!  And if, after all of our caution, any of us gets COVID right before long-awaited vacations (the lead-up anxiety will be very high for me), I will be extremely disappointed, despite how much COVID has taught us about being adaptable and flexible, and to not be too hopeful because things can change in an instant.  I am eager to read to read the book "Psychology of Pandemics" which should be on its way to me soon, as the psychology of risk calculation, risk tolerance, and risk budgets is extremely interesting to me, and such COVID calculations have consumed so much of my energy for the past two years. 

I wonder how much (and when) hard-drive space in our brains will be freed by not having to perform so much risk analysis all day long!  I am looking forward to being confidently unmasked, being able to travel freely, and to actually look forward to vacations again, even if there's some degree of uncertainty involved!